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A few weeks ago I posed a series of "order of magnitude" thought experiments about the future of people. I didn't get much response, probably because they were thought experiments, and not multiple-choice surveys where people could just click to vote. Also asking people to think rationally between Thanksgiving and Christmas is always a challenge :)
But let's consider them together. They all have the following schema: What if x? Would things be better for you, or worse? Choices for x included:
- What if the world had {2X, 4X, 10X} more people in it?
- What if everyone made {2X, 4X, 10X} more money?
- What if everyone was {2X, 4X} bigger?
- What if everyone was {10%, 20%} smarter?
What's interesting about these questions is that although there were posed hypothetically, there are definite trends. From the recent past (say 100 years) through today, the following are unequivocally true:
- The world has far more people in it (about 8X in the last 100 years). The trend is that in the next 100 years, this growth will continue but at a slower pace.
- The world is far more productive (about 4X in the last 100 years). The trend is that in the next 100 years, this growth will continue and perhaps even accelerate.
- People are much larger (about 30% by weight and 20% by height, in the last 100 years). The trend is that in the next 100 years, this growth will continue but at a slower pace.
The last question is less clear; have people become {less intelligent, more intelligent} in the last 100 years? An open question, I would say; the Flynn effect indicates "more intelligent", while population analysis suggests "less intelligent". And in the next 100 years, will the trend be up, or down?
You know what I think, but what do you think?
Here's today's survey:
In the next 100 years, will people be more intelligent, or less intelligent?
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