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first pass

Monday,  01/02/23  03:01 PM

It's the first filter pass of the new year ... lots going on.  Many (many!) year-in-review articles out there, and many (many!) what's-going-to-happen-next articles and posts, too.  The big trends I see are 1) crypto is over, the pyramid is finally collapsing, and 2) tech investment has retrenched, we seem back to a more normal situation where good companies can raise money but bad companies (and non-companies) cannot.

Mashable: The deep sea discoveries and sightings of 2022.  "You're always finding things you haven't seen before.

The Federalist: 10 wins in 2022.  Many more losses, though... 

Nonzero News: Tweet of the year.  Sadly, a good call. 

Ars Technica: 10 best cars we drove in 2022.  Eight of the ten are EVs, zero of them are Teslas, #1 was a Kia.  Who would have thought? 

A recurring theme in 2022 has been the governments' reactions to Covid.  David Sacks retweets Elon Musk regarding Anthony Fauci.  To me it seems likely that the Wuhan flu virus was synthetic, and accidentally escaped the lab where it was created for "gain of function" research.  Sounds like a movie, and it stopped the whole world for a while. 

Here's an interesting Tweet from Joscha Bach.  I'm a huge fan of Wikipedia and never would have known this.  Did you? 

Taxprof Blog: The Myth of American Income Inequality.  "Real income of the bottom quintile, the authors write, grew more than 681% from 1967 to 2017. The percentage of people living in poverty fell from 32% in 1947 to 15% in 1967 to only 1.1% in 2017."  Economic growth has been a rising tide; all boats aren't lifted equally, but all boats *are* lifted.  Definitely conflicts with the prevailing narrative, huh? 

2022 was the year of many things, among them, SpaceX launches became commonplace, as well as their successful landings and subsequent reuse of boosters.  Teslarati note their 61st launch of 2022 tied a 42-year-old record set by the USSR. 

Ottmar Liebert: 2022.  I link because he links the year in cheer, 183 ways the world got better, and New Atlas' best photos of 2022

Panda's Thumb: Breakthroughs of 2022. "I consider a miracle to be something that I understand in some detail and know it is impossible, yet there it is in my hand for $200 – a digital camera, for example."  He links Science: Breakthrough of the year ... the James Webb telescope: 

BusinessWeek: How not to play the game.  Yeah, the FTX collapse, etc., but there's a bigger picture, as this article points out.  "What makes this problem so hard in a crypto financial system is that there are no economic fundamentals."  I'm not sure there's an actual problem, there's just no there there. 

Liron Shapira: So long crypto, thanks for the memories.  This Tweet has been viewed 456K times.  You should too, click thought and watch the video.  It's dead on. 

Miguel de Icaza: the truly amazing part about crypto is how they scaled scamming.  "340,000 people in this last round trusted their money to good looking web sites.

As a known "techie" my friends often ask me about crypto, and I've always said I don't get it.  By which I mean, I know how blockchains work, but I don't understand how ICOs and NFTs and DAOs create value.  And I still don't. 

Brad Feld: What just happened.  "If you're a fan of Harry Potter, think of 2022 as the sorting ceremony."  He thinks 2023 will be like 2000.  For crypto, it already is. 

Finally, from Marc Andreessen: The more things change... 

Definitely worth keeping in mind as we advance into the new year.  Some things like crypto are passing fads, others, like AI, are new things which genuinely create new value. 

Ands RealClearPolitics note: Chase the American Dream in 2023.  "People across the United States share a positive and hopeful narrative about the American Dream. In 2022, most Americans said they either have achieved or are on their way to achieving the American Dream. Only a small minority, 18%, said it is out of reach. Notably, this trend was consistent across age groups, race, education, and income."